The $500 bustout hand

[BlackShuck]

I'm not sure about this hand yet so let's have a discussion about it. I realise a lot of you are going to auto-fold (because you fold too much ) but let's see.

Poker Stars $500+$30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t4000/t8000 Blinds + t800 - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: t374799 M = 20.37
BB: t87614 M = 4.76
UTG: t619690 M = 33.68
UTG+1: t497026 M = 27.01
MP1: t188288 M = 10.23
Hero (MP2): t158542 M = 8.62
CO: t114063 M = 6.20
BTN: t333247 M = 18.11

Pre Flop: (t18400) Hero is MP2 with 3 3
3 folds, Hero raises to t157742 all in


Down to the last 32 of the Sunday $500, next money jump isn't till something like ~27th.

CO seemed mediocre and tight, his OPR is good though (name = xaro***Cjes)
BTN was pretty bad and extremely nitty.
SB seemed decent (name = ferg***wrx, he eventually won the tournament)
BB plays a lot of small stakes 180mans, seemed ok but nothing special.



Thoughts?



(Edit: I think my image was probably slightly loose but not crazy. I had open-shoved the last 2-3 hands but was wondering about this in a vacuum, although if you think it changes things a lot then you can comment on that as well)

[TallguyUK]

I think this is a reasonable push - you are looking to win the tourney, not limp up the levels. Not even sure its that diffiult a decision.

If called by overcards you are in a race, if you run into a monster c'est la vie. If not called take down blinds is fine.

[Crumble]

Obviously I don't play these big tournaments so I'll give a small stakes perspective...

Being in the cutoff with M still over 8: it's a bit early to be open shoving even though small pairs are good open shove material. I prefer either a small raise, 20K - 25K depending on how the table is playing and my own image, or a fold. Given the nitty button I think the small raise has a good chance of getting through. Obviously I'm folding to a shove.

The only info you haven't given is your own table image. Have you been annoying them to make them more likely to play back at you?

[Reg]

I think its fine. Obviously you don't have to make the play but if you plan on winning the tournament, you need to be playing aggressively when the blinds are this high.

[teachai]

I've done this many a time but you do occasionally run into a big hand. Having open shoved 2-3 times recently, I'm probably calling you down lighter than normal. But you still have plenty of fold equity. If I've shoved a few hands recently, then I'm more tempted to fold.

I like the shove here.

[Likey]

I was railing you overnight and thought you had a damn good chance of getting all the way until this happened. I won't reveal too much of what happened but it was a bit of a rubdown and you'd rather not see the board at all.

I discussed this with Jagz when I woke up not so long ago, he might post something later too but he basically said to avoid this situation. He can correct me later if that's not what he meant. but here's my conclusion:

With a 20BB stack you're going to have to be tighter with your raising range, the CO and BB have a restealing stack so raise-folding is not the best option, BTN and SB cover you. In a normal 15 minute clock you can argue shoving here but with a slower structure of 20 minutes I will pass.

Here's a quick calculation of what you gain relative to your stack when taking the pot down:

19,7BB: 11.66% (I feel this is very marginal with 33 and will pass)
15.0BB: 15.55% (More likely to shove as you gain more)
12.0BB: 19.16% (Definitely shoving)
10.0BB: 23% (The felt is burning my hands as I shove quicker)

I had a discussion with MTT pros about shoving 19BB on the CO when 7 handed with K9s, I was on the final two tables of the $20 cubed where I should have made back to back final tables. The fold equity is higher as they're less likely to call, the guy was dwelling his whole time bank and eventually called with JJ. In a $500 MTT I don't think they'll take that long to call as they're unlikely to be nits.

Unlucky not to get further, you played awesome and not worried about sticking your stack in the middle.

Well done.

[ramchip]

I don't like the shove here although I realise many will not agree. I still think many shove to early and this is a prime example. Had this talk with 3N1GM4 and Bas (about other hands not this hand) and they say I'm wrong. Do this with a big pair and I love it as it looks so much like a small pair or rag ace.

[3N1GM4]

Perosnally, for many of the reasons already given, I don't like the shove here.

With almost 20BBs (or an M of almost 9), I don't feel I need to shove here, especially if as you say, we've shoved a few other hands recently, which surely increases the chances of getting looked up by other non-premium pocket pairs.

I probably like the raise/fold even less, so would like to think I would fold here. However, as I am a tourney donk and think way less at the table than I should, I would probably end up shoving (or even worse, raise-folding) for all the wrong reasons.

[mickhart1967]

I look at situations like this over a maths point and try and fine tune it with an estimate of icm/player nature/latest tendency or pattern.

I have no experience of playing players at this buyin (i won't say level as you know you can play rich idiots now and and again).

I think this is a very brave push. It isn't daft at all. Whether it is correct or not with the structure and payout levels i couldn't say as one needs a lot more information. Really interested to hear Jagz reply to this.

By the way i would have flatted this weakly and maybe made a move depending on any negative playback when the flop landed.

This hand could take hours to discuss.

If i was following you and you had been playing loose then i would have called with 99 + AK - if i thought i would be heads up by the way.

Well played to go so deep i'm assuming it was the exit/crippling hand but hope it was not.

[Bas]

This is pretty awful, I'd probs jam this spot with 15bb at the very max, with so many nits behind you, I far prefer 2.25x/folding or 2.5/3x calling