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Old 17-10-2014, 02:04 AM   #11 (permalink)
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A rare foray onto the flat at this time of year for me but I think I have found something with a bit of value for Friday.

The Dewhurst Stakes 4.00 Newmarket. Estidhkaar will be a short priced favourite but I am willing to take him on with Smugglers Cove 9/2 Betfed, bet365, Skybet (all BOG) but he is as low as 3/1 with Ladbrokes. His last race was when he won a listed race at Dundalk on the all weather. It looks like soft going at Newmarket and we don't know if he can handle that but, at these odds, I would take the chance. He surged clear from 2f out to win by 7 lengths. Simon Rowlands indicated in his sectional debrief that it was a very fast last 3f. I think there could be a lot of improvement to come.
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Old 18-10-2014, 08:49 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Just one for today at the moment as I haven't too much time. 2.00 Cheltenham. Some pretty decent hurdlers here but I am going for one with a bit of potential. Bally Beaufort 11/1 BetVictor (BOG). This is his debut over hurdles but he has a lot of experience in point to points. He has had injury problems but has won 5 ptp's. he is an out and out stayer and hopefully will take to hurdles. At these odds is well worth a bet. If it remains 8 runners a cracking EW bet I think.

A bit of a puzzler later. Ardkilly Witness is in the 4.25. Seems odd that he has been entered as his trainer has said he needs to go right handed. This could be a prep race and an effort to get his handicap mark down. I won't bet him today but will be keen to see how he goes ready for a crack on a right handed track.
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Old 19-10-2014, 10:23 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Not a lot of time today and been at work all night so need to go to bed. Am interested in the 2.15 Kempton but won't be up in time. There are no bookie prices yet, only betfair, but I would like to take a chance on Gladstone 15/2 Betfair. Obviously taking a chance as very little form ( for all the runners) to go on but I have read good things about him and I often think you can get a bit of value where all the runners are unexposed if you are willing to take a chance. I certainly think worth taking a chance at this price when compared to the front two in the market.
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Old 22-10-2014, 01:07 PM   #14 (permalink)
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5.35 Worcester. A good looking event but the value appears to be with Blackthorne Prince 14/1 Betfair who is as low as 5/1 elsewhere. Has only raced once in a point in Ireland putting in a very good performance to finish second. He was bought after for 200k by J P McManus and placed with Jonjo O'Neill.
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Old 25-10-2014, 02:53 PM   #15 (permalink)
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2.25 Chepstow. An interesting novice chase. Two decent ex hurdlers take part. Sausalito Sunrise was slightly the best and will no doubt make a good chaser. However, at these prices I will take a chance on Mosspark 11/4 Betvictor, bet365 (both BOG). he has the makings of a very good chaser after some decent outings over hurdles. Minella On Line could also be a bit of a dark one here.

5.45 Wolverhampton. A bit of all weather flat action here. Most Tempting 3/1 Ladbrokes, betVictor, corals (all BOG) ran a very good race last time after starting badly and not getting a clear run on the run in. She looked like she would have won without the trouble. She has only been raised 1lb and could be decently handicapped here.
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Old 25-10-2014, 03:09 PM   #16 (permalink)
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One more today. 2.00 Aintree. Katgary 9/2 Bet365, Hills (both BOG) was badly hampered in the Fred Winter last year when getting 2nd place. It is possible that he may be aimed at chases later on but could be on a decent mark over hurdles. Nicholls hasn't had the greatest start and by his own admission some have needed the run but at these odds he is a selection today.
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Old 25-10-2014, 07:55 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Katgary was another one of Nicholls that didn't run well. Mosspark went well for most of the race but blundered two out and that put the finish to any chance he had. We have just come very close with Most Tempting. The field let the long odds outsider take a long lead but Most Tempting came with a storming run and just failed to catch him by a short head.
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